Super-premium Tequila faces 5% drop by 2030
As super-premium Tequila volumes decline, the high-end part of the category is expected to soar by 2030, according to IWSR.
The growth of the Tequila category has slowed in recent years. Global volumes rose by a compound annual growth rate of 6% from 2019 to 2025 but are expected to rise by 2% to 2030, IWSR data showed.
Last year, the category’s global volumes were up by 2%.
The US remains the largest market for Tequila, accounting for more than two-thirds of total volume. However, volumes were flat in 2025 and are expected to dip slightly this year.
Ultra-premium is the only price tier growing strongly, but at a slower rate than recent years, IWSR explained. Volumes rose by 7% last year, capping a 31% CAGR gain since 2019.
The price tier’s share of US Tequila volumes has grown from 6% in 2019 to 17% last year. It is expected to reach a 21% volume CAGR rise by 2030.
On the other hand, super-premium Tequila is struggling. The segment’s volumes fell by 6% last year, with a 5% CAGR decline expected over the five years to 2030.
The premium tier saw a small 1% uptick last year as drinkers shifted to cheaper products.
The category’s second-largest market, Mexico, is expected to return to growth. According to IWSR data, volumes declined at a CAGR of 2% (2019-2025), but rebounded with a 3% gain last year. In Mexico, Tequila is forecast to grow at a 3% CAGR through 2030.
The category’s recovery in Mexico is led by standard and premium products, alongside ‘strong gains’ for cristalino and premium-and-above blanco. Value and low-priced Tequilas are losing share, IWSR stated.
Jose Luis Hermoso, research director for Central and South America at IWSR, believes the 2026 men’s Fifa World Cup should lead to a “meaningful near-term tailwind for Tequila” in Mexico, which is one of the three host nations for the football tournament.
“Meanwhile, a slower US Tequila market and much lower agave prices for Tequila production will mean more focus by brand owners and producers on the domestic scene, which was neglected in the past when Tequila was booming in the US,” he added.
Next big Tequila markets: India and Colombia
IWSR has spotlighted India as a major market for Tequila. Volumes grew at a CAGR of 32% from 2019 to 2025, following similar growth of 34% last year. Tequila volumes in India are forecast to rise by 13% by 2030.
Jason Holway, senior research consultant at IWSR, added: “Tequila’s growing popularity in India has coincided with a downturn in the category’s fortunes in the US market, increasing availability. There may have been allocation issues had the spike in India come a year or two earlier.
“However, local agave-based drinks of comparable quality to imported Tequilas – and at similar price points – provide competition which may, given Indian consumers’ evident pride in the increasing quality of local products, become more of a factor.”
IWSR has also called Colombia a market to watch for Tequila, which could see a 5% volume gain by 2030, following a 26% rise last year.
“The category is experiencing a surge in popularity and trendiness, reflected in robust growth,” explained Jessica Ibarra, IWSR market analyst. “Volumes have doubled since the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.”
IWSR has pointed out several other noteworthy markets: Nigeria (2019-25 volume CAGR of 48%), Türkiye (up 19% and forecast CAGR of 8% to 2030), and Japan (up 12% and forecast CAGR of 7% to 2030).
Hermoso noted: “Promising markets outside the US and Mexico – India, West Africa, Türkiye, Colombia, and Japan – are at very different stages of development. That creates both an opportunity and also a sequencing challenge for brand owners in the months and years ahead.”
Future led by value and agave supply
IWSR believes the category’s future is being shaped by the agave supply cycle and consumer behaviour, which is ‘more value-sensitive’.
After years of excessive planting due to demand, IWSR predicts an agave supply glut for 2030.
“The agave supply cycle suggests that raw material costs could ease meaningfully within three to five years as current over-planting becomes ready to harvest,” said Hermoso. “Producers who can sustain margin discipline through this period will benefit from a more favourable input cost environment.”
Regarding the latter point on cost-conscious consumer behaviour, IWSR said this is backed by the ‘hard price ceilings seen in the US market, while India’s surge in ultra-premium volumes is from a tiny base against a backdrop of availability-dependent growth’.
The latest SipSource figures showed that the US$50-US$59.99 Tequila segment was down by 8.9% in volume and by 9.6% in value in the 12 months to March 2026.
The Spirits Business recently questioned whether the decades-long trend of premiumisation in spirits has ended.
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