SipSource: vodka to outpace US spirits market
The vodka category is expected to outperform the core spirits market in the US over the next 12 months, according to a SipSource forecast.
The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America’s (WSWA) SipSource tool has revealed its quarterly projections of rolling 12-month nine-litre case depletion growth rates from the second quarter (Q2) of 2026 to Q2 2027 across major spirits categories and the total core spirits market (excluding ready-to-drink products).
The forecast looks at seven major spirits categories: brandy/Cognac, rum, Tequila/agave, vodka, US whiskey, Irish whiskey, and Scotch whisky.
SipSource noted a depletion decrease of 4.19% for core spirits for the 12 months to the end of March 2026.
It expects total core spirits to improve slightly to a depletion drop of 3.91% by the fourth quarter of 2026, and to a drop of 3.68% by Q2 2027.
In terms of key categories, SipSource estimates that the agave spirits segment will stabilise, with strong performance in mid-tier price brackets. Overall growth is expected to remain negative.
SipSource also anticipates that rum, Irish whiskey and brandy/Cognac will underperform the broader core spirits market, but vodka is forecast to outpace the sector. All four categories are projected to remain in decline through 2026 and into early 2027.
Scotch and American whiskey are expected to improve gradually as the market moves toward 2027, led by ‘affordable luxury’ price tiers, which are expected to outperform other segments throughout the forecast period.
“While the spirits market continues to be pretty tough, the latest forecast suggests conditions may finally begin to stabilise over the coming year, albeit while remaining in negative territory,” said Francis Creighton, WSWA president and CEO.
“The data continues to reinforce the importance of disciplined business planning, targeted consumer engagement, and meeting consumers where they are as the industry navigates ongoing challenges.”
According to data from the Distilled Spirits Council of the US, the vodka category saw total revenue drop by 3% to US$7 billion last year. Vodka volumes also fell by 2.2% to 72.5m nine-litre cases.
The ready-to-drink (RTD) category surpassed vodka in global value last year, IWSR revealed last month.
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