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Online alcohol sales to hit $36bn by 2028
E-commerce alcohol sales in 18 markets are expected to surpass US$36 billion by 2028, with agave spirits and whisky to drive growth.
In its latest Ecommerce Strategic Study, IWSR Drinks Market Analysis said the online alcohol category in 18 markets could rise by 20% in value over the next five years, adding US$6bn in incremental growth.
IWSR previously estimated that alcohol e-commerce sales in 16 markets would reach nearly US$40bn by 2027, having forecast the same figure for the previous year.
The latest edition of IWSR’s e-commerce report, which now also covers Hong Kong and Singapore, stated that the online alcohol sector was showing a ‘more predictable growth pattern’ following a boom during the pandemic.
For this year’s study, IWSR looked at 18 key markets: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, the UK and the US.
Guy Wolfe, head of e-commerce insights at IWSR, said: “After significant volatility over the past five years, global channel dynamics appear to be stabilising.
“While alcohol e-commerce has been growing in importance, it is now clear that its influence extends far beyond online transactions.”
The spirits category will lead future growth for e-commerce alcohol, IWSR believes, with agave-based spirits and whisky predicted to be the top-performing subcategories. Wine and beer will also show steady growth.
China and US to drive growth
IWSR pinpoints the most growth to come from China and the US, while markets such as Australia, Japan and Mexico will also boost the sector’s value.
China is predicted to contribute US$1.9bn in value gains by 2028, with social media platforms like Douyin (the Chinese version of TikTok) ‘reshaping consumer interactions’ as they combine entertainment and shopping.
The number of shoppers in the US buying alcohol online has also risen by four percentage points, based on an IWSR consumer survey during the third quarter of 2024.
In the US, American whiskey is expected to drive a significant share of predicted growth, led by high-end products such as Bourbon, rye and American single malts.
Meanwhile, underdeveloped e-commerce alcohol markets are seeing a fallback close to pre-pandemic numbers, IWSR highlighted.
Online sales in the UK are predicted to continue to decrease from a high base, before a return to growth from 2026 onwards.
Italy is forecast to expand at the fastest rate from a low base, led partly by investments from supermarkets in online grocery capabilities.
IWSR said consumer research indicates that the Italian online alcohol shopper base increased by around half a million last year.
Wolfe noted that digital platforms are playing a key role in boosting offline sales, as consumers head online to research products before buying.
He emphasised the importance of brand owners sustaining a “strong digital presence”.
Wolfe added: “Prioritising the development of robust online strategies and continually refining digital content will be critical to staying competitive and capturing consumer engagement across channels.”
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