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What trends will dominate auctions in 2025?

Times are changing – so what looks set to dominate auction houses in 2025? Whisky.Auction sets out its forecasts.

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What will go under the hammer in 2025?

Whisky.Auction, owned by Pernod Ricard, saw volume and value sales for brands such as The Macallan and Karuizawa fall in 2024.

In contrast, the auctioneer reported value growth for brands including Springbank, Port Ellen and Hibiki.

Scott Walker, head of valuations at Whisky.Auction, commented: “The recent value decline has hit all luxury markets, including watches, art and fashion items such as handbags.

“However, for those looking to place their money in physical assets whisky has the benefit of being something to consume if all else fails. This blurs the line between investment asset and something with an emotional value which therefore sees it perceived as a luxury compared to other collectables.”

So, what looks set to lead the charge at auction in 2025?

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Growing demand outside of the UK is forecast for 2025

International markets to lead

According to Whisky.Auction, Hong Kong is leading demand outside of the UK. However, the auctioneer noted economic factors will make growth uncertain.

Gemma de Jesus, head of Whisky.Auction, said: “Whisky.Auction has always had a strong following around the globe, and 2024 saw impressive uplift from several core markets. In terms of value in 2024, orders from Germany were up 43% YoY [year on year], while Japan was up 48% and Hong Kong was up an impressive 78%. The US remained a strong audience for Whisky.Auction, especially for luxury whiskies, with value spend on Macallan increasing despite some price woes for the brand in general.

“Economic factors aside, we expect growth from markets outside of the UK to continue, led by Hong Kong due to the recent considerable decrease in spirits duty making auction purchases more accessible to a wider audience. Order value from Germany has jumped considerably each year and will continue to do so as the recent price reset makes great whisky more attainable. The US is the most unpredictable. Following a positive 2024 for our US sales, potential tariffs for 2025 posed by the Trump administration could see demand fall, but we won’t know for a little while yet.”

World whisky will grow

New distilleries contributing to the growing world whisky category are expected to also grow momentum on the secondary market.

De Jesus noted: “On the global theme, ‘world whisky’ is starting to build momentum on the secondary market, with our ‘world whisky’ category seeing a 32% increase YoY between 2023 and 2024, led by English Whisky (volume up 26%) and Canadian (volume up 11%). As new distilleries from Nordic countries build a name for themselves in whisky production bottles are springing up in the lower price brackets of the auction, which have legs to grow. We’ve been keeping an eye on WhistlePig (Canada), The Lakes (England), Penderyn (Wales), Amrut (India), Alrik (Germany) and Sullivan’s Cove (Australia).”

Slow start for investors

The year may start slowly for investors, who are expected to hold on to bottles until prices become ‘more certain’. However, Whisky.Auction expects these to start selling more later this year.

Walker said: “The prospects for Macallan investors of the early 2020s might not be completely bright, but Macallan hasn’t completely lost its shine in 2024. The Speyside distillery is still leading the market despite volume of bottles at auction halving and values down significantly. At Whisky.Auction in 2024 we saw a return to previous consistency in volume of £10,000-plus [US$12,200-plus] bottles following a dip in 2023 (up 120% YoY, admittedly from a low starting point) suggesting that despite the price drop the demand is still there for prestige whiskies. The launch of the Space: Time Mastery bottle just before Christmas saw a resurgence in customers sending newly released bottles straight to auction for the first time this year.”

Good news for whisky drinkers

‘Savvy’ shoppers should be able to pick up several bargains throughout the year, as the sky-high sales of previous years settle, and more affordable bottlings go under the hammer.

Walker said: “Most brands have dropped in volume and value YoY providing more opportunity for drinkers to purchase bottles which had previously been unattainable. Throughout 2025 these prices are likely to stay at a sustainable point for buyers, opening brands back up to whisky lovers that had been lost during the price hike of 2022.”

Some brands will buck the downward trend

Lastly, the auction house noted: “While 2025 will continue to see lower prices for the brands that saw values skyrocket, some distilleries will continue to buck the trend.”

“American whiskeys have also been more consistent,” said Walker. “A good example here is the Buffalo Trace Antique Collection or Pappy Van Winkle annual releases. A large amount of these are released via ballot by retailers at the recommended RRP, so they are hard to get but still affordable and likely to make a significant profit at auction still as a result.

Japan is more complex than you might think. While we’ve seen a decline in Karuizawa value, Hibiki and Yamazaki have been much more resilient. While overall value sales of Hibiki were down this year, average hammer price was up 12%, while Yamazaki saw a steady year for volume sales, neither increasing nor decreasing.

“We’ve also seen growth in the average hammer price of Rosebank, Brora and Port Ellen, perhaps due to the marketing around their reopening, as well as savvy investors.”

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