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‘National spirits’ to continue volume domination

Global spirits consumption is predicted to hit 3.16 billion cases by 2021, with ‘national spirits’ such as baijiu, soju and Indian whisky retaining significant market share.

Moutai is one of the leading baijiu brands

According to a new report compiled by leading wine and spirits trade show Vinexpo and the IWSR, global spirits consumption will grow 1.7% between 2016 and 2021.

Consumption of ‘national spirits’ – products that are largely consumed in their domestic market – will grow 2.1% to 1.48bn nine-litre cases, almost half of the global total.

The fastest-growing spirit category in terms of volume will be Tequila, which is predicted to increase by 118% between 2016 and 2021 to 35m cases. Cognac/Armagnac follows, with a predicted growth rate of +23.1% to 16m cases.

Bourbon (+18.6%), Scotch (+13.1%) and gin (+10.5%) are also all predicted to perform strongly and are set to achieve volumes of 51m, 95m and 63m cases respectively.

Vodka, the second largest spirit category after ‘national spirits’, will see the greatest decrease come 2021, with volumes predicted to fall 7.2% to 425m cases.

Consumption of rum is forecast to fall 2.9% to 135m cases; brandy is expected to decline 4.6% to 166m cases; and liqueurs is set to decrease 2.9% to 67m cases.

However, the report notes that in the premium-plus price bracket, all spirit categories will be in growth by 2021. Gin and baijiu will see the greatest CAGR gains in this price bracket, at +11.4% and +11.3% respectively.

Speaking to journalists yesterday, Vinexpo CEO Guillaume Deglise noted that in markets such as China, consumers “are very loyal” to national spirits.

“But on the other side,” he added, “the fact that baijiu is going more premium is also a good sign that these producers are looking to enter new markets, both locally and nationally.”

In terms of per capita spirits consumption, South Korea continues to be the largest market according to latest available data, despite a 1.26% decline in 2016 to 31.54 litres per adult.

Vinexpo is set to host its Hong Kong event on 29-31 May 2018, a milestone 20th anniversary. The show – the largest international event for wine and spirits professionals in Asia Pacific – will feature 1,300 exhibitors and 18,000 visitors.

Vinexpo recently announced that it will launch a new event in Paris in 2020.

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