World Spirits Report 2025: Scotch whisky
This year has truly put the Scotch category in limbo. From Donald Trump’s on‐again, off‐again tariffs to the UK government’s refusal to engage with the subject of spirits duty, the sector hasn’t known whether it’s coming or going all year.
The year started wobbly, with data from the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) showing the value of Scotch whisky exports fell by 3.7% to £5.4 billion (US$6.7bn) in 2024 compared with 2023. However, exports by volume rose by 3.9%, which the SWA said showed changing trends in consumer preferences and a ‘challenging trading environment’.
The first rumblings of tariff news came in late 2024, with the sector spending the whole of 2025 quaking in Trump’s shadow. As things stand, the UK is subject to a 10% tariff on any goods exported to the US, which the SWA estimates is costing the sector £4 million per week.
Whether due to tariffs or other factors, the impact has already begun to be felt by Scotch producers, with some openly announcing production pauses – and others most likely scaling back quietly. Brown‐Forman’s Glenglassaugh switched to a ‘shared production model’ with BenRiach in January, while the Isle of Harris Distillery followed up with a pause and job cuts in April.
There have been blows even for distilleries touted to have had a solid year. InchDairnie, which debuted its inaugural single malts in May, and announced a doubling of its production capabilities last year, had to row back and make job cuts in October, citing a decline in global demand for whisky.
“Demand for Scotch has softened overall, although not uniformly across markets,” says Laure Habbouse, global marketing, at La Martiniquaise‐Bardinet (LMB). “Consumer behaviour and export dynamics have shifted, with some countries now less whisky‐driven than during the ‘boom years’, particularly throughout and just after the pandemic.
“At LMB, we did not halt production. On the contrary, we opened a new grain distillery in Bathgate, which will allow us to secure substantial volumes for the future.”
The situation isn’t unique to the Scotch industry, but what is particularly disappointing for Scotch producers is the lack of support from its own government.
Alcohol duty has been linked to the Retail Price Index since February, with last month’s Budget offering no relief for distillers.
More positive for Scotch was a trade agreement between the UK and India, which was finalised this year. The move has cut import tariffs on UK goods from 150% to 75%, and it will drop to 40% when the deal hits its 10th year.
Equally, Euromonitor’s figures are favourable. It predicts Scotch volumes will be up by 1.38% in 2025 to around 98.1 million nine‐litre cases, with a further 1.85% growth predicted for 2026. Value sales could reach US$62.1m, up by 4.13% on 2024, and another 6.03% growth is anticipated for 2026.
Brands to watch in 2026
Johnnie Walker
As Scotch sales slide, the world’s biggest‐selling Scotch brand is poised to widen its already massive lead. With Diageo’s incoming CEO likely to focus on one of the group’s stronger brands, and a headline‐grabbing partnership with Sabrina Carpenter to entice a new generation of whisky drinkers, Johnnie Walker is primed for a solid 2026.
Dunphail Distillery
Mark your calendar for October 2026, as it will be three years to the day that Dunphail Distillery began production. It’s had a rocky time since then (if we can describe a founder being accused of conspiracy to murder as ‘rocky’), but the brand is likely hoping to turn the page with its inaugural single malts.
Highland Park
Scotch sometimes gets a bad rap for being old fashioned, but Orkney distillery Highland Park is making a point of being modern. Founded in 1798, this year the brand underwent an identity refresh and welcomed a new master distiller, Marc Watson. Could 2026 be the start of a new era?
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