WSWA: spirits slide set to continue into 2026
The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America (WSWA) predicts modest declines for the spirits sector over the next 12 months, as economic pressures and shifting consumer habits reshape the US market ahead of the key festive period.
In its 2025 SipSource Holiday Trends Preview webinar, the WSWA looked at forecasts for drinks categories in the year ahead and explored the factors impacting the industry.
SipSource analyst Dave Stratton shared findings from wholesaler depletion data for the third quarter of 2025.
Spirits declines lean to more cyclical while wine and beer are more structural decreases, Stratton noted.
In terms of macro trends, Stratton says there is not a lot of change from an economic point of view. “Cumulative inflation continues to catch up with the consumer and has an impact on their buying patterns,” he explained.
He emphasised the importance of the festive period in terms of sales for the industry, with the last quarter of 2024 seeing a jump in both volume and revenue. He also pointed out that value sales outperform volume during the holiday period with consumers trading up.
“Consumer debt remains high as we come into the holidays in the conditions we’re in right now,” Stratton added. He also noted the impact of tariffs and the removal of American products from all but two Canadian provinces. “That business is going to be hurt for the long term,” he says of alcohol sales in Canada.
Stratton also warned that cannabis-based and hemp-based beverages are having some impact on the alcohol sector. “It’s hard for us to really know what that [impact] is because that’s not an easy segment to measure at this point.”
Agave spirits and Bourbon on the rise
From a revenue share standpoint, Stratton notes that all spirits categories were in decline in the 12 months to September 2025.
“On a volume basis, Tequila continues to grow slightly, but on a revenue basis, all categories are down. You can see really Tequila/agave doing the best, along with cordials and liqueurs,” he pointed out. “The other end of that spectrum, Cognac/brandy is making some improvements.”
Both Tequila/agave and the cordials/liqueur categories saw the smallest revenue declines in the past 12 months, both down by 1.8%. US whiskey declined by 3.8%, Canadian whisky fell by 6.2%, Scotch was down by 6.2% and rum decreased by 8%.
Cognac/brandy suffered the biggest drop, plunging by 11.3%.
Meanwhile, gin declined by 4.3%, Irish whiskey fell by 7.2% and vodka dropped by 4.6%.
Stratton notes Tequila has been the “reliable growth engine for the spirits category” in the US, driven by reposado, which has grown its share by 12.4% in September 2025, compared with the same month last year. However, he notes that reposado is not growing as fast as it was last year, when it was up by 16%.
Stratton also notes that mezcal, from a small base, only grew by 0.6% in the 12 months to September 2025. However, the category is starting to return to its pre-Covid growth rate.
Due to price point, añejo Tequila has struggled to grow, he warned.
In terms of the whisky category, Stratton highlights Bourbon as “doing well” and gaining share overall of the spirits category. “Its trends are slightly better than they were last year,” he said. On the other hand, Tennessee whiskey is losing share while Canadian whisky has “gained share over the last year, but is losing momentum”.
He spotlighted single malt Scotch, rye whiskey and flavoured whiskey as categories that have all gained share and are seeing momentum.
Beyond whisky and agave spirits, Stratton says spiced rum “is still losing share” but is starting to come back, while cordials are “very stable”.
The WSWA has also revealed its forecast for spirits for the year ahead, based on its AI-driven SipSource tool.
It covers eight core spirits categories: Tequila/agave, Cognac/brandy, American whiskey, vodka, rum, US whiskey, Irish whiskey and Scotch.
Collectively, these core spirits categories are expected to see a sales drop by 4.39% for the last quarter of 2025. The decrease will gradually lessen to 4.32% in the first quarter of 2025, 4.1% in the second quarter of next year and 4.12% in the third quarter.
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