IWSR cuts 2025 alcohol forecast
Global alcohol volumes are set to drop further in 2025 than IWSR expected with ready-to-drink (RTD) forecast as the only category to grow.
IWSR previously estimated global alcohol volumes would dip by 0.2% in 2025, compared with last year. However, it has now revised its estimate to a decrease of 0.5%.
This is primarily due to an ‘unexpected drop in beer’, which IWSR has attributed mostly to ‘economic and political pressures in the US and China’.
By value, IWSR is now forecasting a year-on-year decline for global alcohol of 0.7%, down from the previous forecast of a 0.5% decrease.
For 2026, IWSR expects the global alcohol sector to be stagnant in both volume and value terms, remaining unchanged from its forecast six months ago.
In terms of categories, global spirits volumes are forecast to drop by 1.3% in 2025, while beer and wine are expected to see declines of 0.2% and 2.4%.
Global RTD volumes are predicted to rise by 1.3% this year.
IWSR’s managing director and president, Marten Lodewijks, explained that consumption in China had been impacted by a government crackdown on luxury goods and a ban on alcohol at public sector events.
“Weaker than expected economic growth is also reducing spending at bars and restaurants as well as beverage alcohol spend generally,” he noted of the Chinese market. “Reflecting this, beer and brandy volume forecasts for China have been adjusted downwards (although other categories remain largely unchanged).”
Regarding the US, he noted that consumers are “choosing to stay at home more than expected because of cost-of-living pressures”, with beer being the most affected category.
He added: “When consumers buy alcohol to entertain at home, they make different purchasing decisions, and beer often loses out.”
This latest estimate from IWSR marks the first time the analyst has released a mid-year update.
IWSR will now provide forecasts (recently extended from five years to 10 years) twice yearly in May and November.
According to IWSR, spirits volumes rose by 1% in the first half of 2025 in 20 markets, driven by whisky made in Ireland and India.
The RTD segment outperformed most alcohol categories across the 20 markets, rising by 3% in the first six months of this year.
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