IWSR tool to forecast coronavirus impact on alcohol industry

Data supplier the IWSR Drinks Market Analysis will launch a risk assessment tool next month, which will examine the impact of coronavirus on the alcohol market on a quarterly basis.

The Covid-19 coronavirus disease has caused more than 3,000 deaths

The coronavirus outbreak began in Wuhan, capital of the Hubei province, in China, last December, and has since spread to more than 20 countries. To date, the death toll has reached more than 3,000, the majority of which have been in China.

Available from the second quarter of 2020, the new IWSR Coronavirus Risk Assessment Model (Cram) has been launch in response to “industry demand for greater clarity during global threats”.

Cram will “quantify and forecast the impact of key global events, giving industry leaders data-driven insights and situational forecasts to navigate the situation and manage risks”.

The tool will measure the virus’ impact on the sector with forecasts for the short-, medium- and long-term.

IWSR said it will “leverage its footprint” of analysts across the world, as well as more than 1,600 trade contacts, to make predictions by key categories, markets, price segments and channels.

Mark Meek, CEO of IWSR, said the tool will provide “industry leaders with the clarity needed to confidently respond to a serious event with global implications”.

He said: “Early reports indicate that the revenue and profit impact to the industry will be in the billions of dollars.

“Initial signs are that global travel retail and on-premise sales in China have suffered a severe downturn, and that other affected regions, such as northern Italy and South Korea, are starting to see a similar impact.

“The e-commerce channel is already seeing increased activity as public transport and normal day-to-day activities, such as school and office attendance, are curtailed in several markets.

“We will work with brand owners, financial institutions, retailers, and industry agencies to provide a comprehensive understanding of the current and future impact of the coronavirus, with the aim of helping to see industry leaders through the threat.”

The tool will be provided to IWSR’s customers for free. It will initially cover global travel retail, China, South Korea and Italy, with additional markets to be added if necessary.