RW101 predicts ‘record year for rare whisky’

The value of collectible Scotch whisky bottles soared 25% in the first half of 2016, surpassing £5 million for the first time since official records began in 2008.

According to analysts at Rare Whisky 101 (RW101), the value of collectible bottles in the first six months of 2016 hit £5.771m, while the volume of collectible bottles rose 28.5% to 26,527 bottles.

RW101, headed by former corporate banker and Whisky Highland founder Andy Simpson and former The Macallan master distiller David Robertson, predicts that if current trends continue, the UK auction market for rare Scotch whisky will reach 55,000 bottles by the end of this year.

This would mark a 10-fold increase since 2010, with total value sales forecast to exceed £12m.

Sales of rare Scotch whisky are in contrast to the broader industry, with recent HMRC figures showing Scotch shipments by value dropped 1.5% in the first six months of this year, but volume exports grew 2.6%.

“For some in the broader Scotch category, export and sales figures still appear challenging,” said Simpson. “However, the secondary market for rarities shows little of this stress and 2016 is shaping up to be yet another record year for rare whisky.”

Simpson added that consumer demand for older and discontinued Scotch whiskies has been fuelled by “the lack of truly collectible new product releases in recent years”. However, he also noted that the market is “polarised” , with value for collectibles and limited editions from less sought-after brands now softening.

“As the secondary market continues to grow and mature, so the profile of the buyer has changed,” Simpson added. “We’re beginning to see the arrival of more high net worth buyers – be they connoisseurs, collectors or investors – and we are now seeing an emerging group of professionals entering the market.

“While many believe this will drive up prices, in our experience, few of these larger buyers seek to acquire at auction.”

Liquid from the silent Karuizawa distillery continues to drive value of Japanese whisky on the secondary market. At the start of this year, RW101 said Karuizawa’s soaring value was “unsustainable”.

The top 100 performing bottles of investment grade Scotch listed in the Rare Whisky 101 Apex 100 Index increased by 19.87% in the half year and have delivered a 24.05% increase over the last 12 months.

RW101’s “star performers” on the collectible Scotch market H1 2016 were The Macallan 18 and 25 Year Old indices, which experienced increases of 29% and 27% respectively.

In terms of investible bottles, Brora and The Dalmore, retain their positions as the top two ranked investor distilleries, meaning they see the greatest value increases. However, silent distilleries Ben Wyvis, Millburn, Lochside and Coleburn, along with the operational Talisker distillery in Skye, saw the biggest losses in investor rankings.