IWSR: Texas leads premium gin opportunity
Texas offers the biggest growth opportunity for premium-plus gin, according to IWSR, as mature European markets continue to decline.
IWSR’s US Navigator tool has identified several key markets for premium-and-above gin as the category struggles in its mature markets.
According to IWSR data, global gin volumes grew by 2% last year. Category growth was led by emerging markets such as India, while the UK and the US continued to decline.
Looking specifically at premium-and-above gin, IWSR noted that compound annual growth rate (CAGR) volumes plunged by 12% in the UK between 2020 and 2024. The sub-premium gin segment also fell by 11% CAGR over the same period.
In Denmark, premium-and-above gin volumes dropped by a CAGR of 3% between 2020 and 2024. In Switzerland, the segment decreased by a CAGR of 4%.
These three markets are expected to continue their decline or remain stagnant. Premium-plus gin volumes in the UK are forecast to fall by a CAGR of 4% between 2024 and 2029.
Switzerland is estimated to have a 4% drop (CAGR 2024-2029), while Denmark is anticipated to be flat.
Local brands dominate Japan
Meanwhile, in Japan, total gin volumes rose by 14% CAGR between 2020 and 2024. For premium-plus, volumes soared by 18% over the four years.
IWSR noted moderate growth in Japan for the category in the future but highlighted that premium-plus volumes could rise by 7% CAGR between 2024 and 2029.
In the US, IWSR believes there is opportunity for growth despite data appearing to be less lucrative.
Premium-and-above volumes rose at a CAGR of 3% in the US between 2020 and 2024, but are expected to be broadly flat to 2029.
IWSR pointed to Japan as being ‘heavily skewed’ towards value and standard-priced gins, with premium-plus holding a share of 9% of the category’s volumes in 2024.
“Japan is a strong volume market for gin, but it is less mature from a premium entry standpoint,” explained Marten Lodewijks, president of IWSR US.
He noted that Japan’s growth in 2024 mainly came from two locally-made products, with imported brands in decline for the second year in a row.
“Imported gins are likely to struggle during the forecast period as they compete with big local and craft brands, with more competitive pricing,” Lodewijks said. “Local gin is likely to continue growing as it is gaining popularity among Japanese consumers through high marketing spends, and among tourists who show a preference for local over imported products.”
Texas: ‘deeply premiumised’
IWSR has highlighted four US states as potential target markets for premium-and-above gin.
Texas was the state that had the largest premium-and-above share of total gin volumes in 2024, at 36%. It was followed by Illinois (33% share), New York (30%) and Florida (21%).
IWSR noted that while gin is a small category by volume in Texas, the state has a ‘high degree of premiumisation’ – larger than Japan.
Lodewijks says the research suggests that Texas is “deeply premiumised” for the category and a “highly targeted opportunity for super-premium gin”, particularly in cities with “strong cocktail culture” like Austin or Dallas.
IWSR also noted that Texans are more positive about their personal finances, compared to Japanese consumers.
According to surveys conducted in March 2025, only 19% of Japanese consumers said they were optimistic about the future, versus 49% of Texans (a figure that is also higher than the US average of 41%). Furthermore, 22% of Japanese drinkers said their personal finances were in really good shape, compared to 37% of Texans.
IWSR’s Bevtrac research also suggests that 16% of legal drinking age respondents in Texas have consumed gin in the past six months – slightly more than in Japan, which sits at 13%.
Patrón Tequila founder John Paul DeJoria launched Texan brand Waterloo Gin in September last year.
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