Tequila growth to slow to 1% by mid-2026
Negative growth rates for spirits in the US are expected to improve slightly by the second quarter of 2026, with Tequila on a path of stabilisation.
Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America (WSWA) released its SipSource second-quarter (Q2) forecast figures, which predict depletion growth rates across spirits in the US for the 12 months until the end of June.
SipSource noted that its latest data showed stabilising negative growth rates by the end of this year, after the industry saw steep declines between 2022 and 2024.
It estimates total spirits will bottom out at a decline of 4.6% by the end of 2025, improving to a drop of 4.09% by Q2 2026.
The data also indicated that rum, US whiskey, vodka and brandy/Cognac could ‘largely flatten’ by the first half of next year, following major decreases for these categories.
Meanwhile, Tequila is starting to stabilise after years of increases. The category is expected to post a 1% gain in the 12 months to June 2026, driven by the US$20-US$100 premium price tier.
Tequila was the only spirit category in the US to record volume growth in the year to the end of March 2025.
“The flattening of negative growth curves may signal an encouraging bottoming out of trends in key categories,” said SipSource analyst Danny Brager.
“While challenges remain, the data shows a clear transition period, giving producers, distributors, and retailers some reason for optimism as they plan for what’s next.”
SipSource noted that its forecasting model has improved, with its first-quarter 2025 predictions being more than 90% accurate. The tool’s one-year projections from January 2024 (when SipSource launched) have remained 80% correct, it claimed.
SipSource’s quarterly data projections are powered by machine learning and AI. Its data covers total spirits and seven major subcategories.
Spirits in the US showed an improved performance in April 2025, according to SipSource.
Related news
Global community platform launches for drinks industry
