Global alcohol value to see $34bn growth by 2034
IWSR Drinks Market Analysis has forecast the global beverage alcohol market to grow by US$16 billion in value over the next five years, and by $34bn in the next 10.
ISWR’s US$34bn prediction is its first forecast accounting for a 10-year period.
Driving this growth are emerging markets such as South Africa, Brazil, and India.
In Brazil, total beverage alcohol (TBA) was up by 1% in volume and 5% in value in 2024, with ready-to-drink (RTD) products and brandy highlighted as growth drivers.
India was up by 6% in volume and by 9% in value. Scotch whisky was noted as a growth driver and IWSR said that India is now forecast to become the biggest Scotch market in the world by 2027.
Earlier this month, tariffs on Scotch imports into the country were slashed from 150% to 75%, with further reductions to come.
South Africa, meanwhile, was up by 3% in volume and 10% in value. Beer and RTDs were cited as its growth drivers.
The 10-year forecast was made possible by IWSR’s new Global Forecast Suite. Along with its volume and value forecasts, the service is said to provide users with more frequent updates and visibility into future market direction.
IWSR will also add a new scenario planning product later this year.
Emily Neill, IWSR chief operating officer, said: “Beverage alcohol growth momentum has decisively shifted towards developing markets, with India likely to be the biggest engine of growth for the next decade, followed by Brazil and Mexico.
“The 10-year forecasts provided by our new Global Forecast Suite really lay bare the extent of the change that is coming, as the combination of demographic changes, shifting economic growth patterns, and the long-run moderation trend in developed markets take full effect.”
In IWSR data released in April, it was revealed that spirits volumes in 2024 declined by fewer than 1% (excluding national spirits). This was described by IWSR as the ‘best category performance after RTDs and cider’.
In 2023, spirit volumes fell by 3% with the inclusion of national spirits.
IWSR senior economist, Martin Belchev, added: “Economic growth in developing markets is set to push up average disposable incomes, which in turn will fuel volume opportunities growth in key markets, such as India and broader Latin-America.
“Global uncertainty, however, will continue to present both demand and operational risks, and will require enhanced scenario-planning capabilities, which we are planning to introduce into our Global Forecast Suite in the second half of 2025.”
Related news
IWSR: spirits and RTDs take share from wine
