Trump ‘on-off travel ban’ a ‘rollercoaster’ for TR

US travel bookings to the Middle East “collapsed” by 27% following US president Donald Trump’s travel ban, creating a “rollercoaster” for travel industry stakeholders, one industry analyst has said.

Donald Trump’s travel ban has resulted in a “rollercoaster” for the travel industry

Travel transaction analyst ForwardKeys has examined bookings data following the introduction of Trump’s travel ban from seven mainly Muslim countries.

According to the firm, which monitors around 16 million travel transactions a day, Trump’s introduction of the travel ban, which was later blocked by the US courts, had a much wider impact than expected.

Total international in-bound travel to the US slumped by 6.5% on the introduction of the executive order. However four weeks on from the ban out-bound bookings from the US to the Middle East collapsed by 27%.

In the three weeks before the ban, bookings from the US to the Middle East were up 12% year-on-year, the analyst continues. Now year-in-year figures have fallen by 39%.

“It is interesting to note that the travel ban has not only impacted travel from the seven affected countries to the USA, as one would expect; it has also affected travel in the opposite direction too,” said Olivier Jager, ForwardKeys CEO.

“At this point, we do not know why exactly but we suspect that United States citizens may be avoiding travel to Islamic countries, fearing that they will not be welcome or that Muslims based in the United States may be avoiding travel fearing re-entry problems or both. Nevertheless, whilst we cannot be sure of the cause, the effect, a 27% collapse in bookings to the Middle East, is substantial.”

Beyond Middle East

According to the analyst, out-bound travel bookings from the US to South Asia have also been impacted.

In the period immediately following the travel ban, bookings fell 24%, despite year-on-year gains of 12% being recorded before the ban. Four weeks after the ban was introduced, bookings have recovered to 4.4% growth.

Future bookings for the March to May season have also fallen back. Forward bookings for travel to the Middle East on 27 January were 23% ahead of the same point last year but saw a 25.4% slow-down by 28 February.  Bookings for travel to South Asia during the March-May period were 8.8% ahead prior to the imposition of the ban but over the same period slowed by 15.4%.

While total US outward travel is currently showing 11% gains, prior to the ban it had been running with a 20% year-on-year uplift.

ForwardKeys notes that it is difficult to directly attribute the March-May slowdown to the travel ban, however “the collapse in bookings to the Middle East is very difficult to explain without reference to the travel ban”.

In-bound travel to the US has also – perhaps unsurprisingly – been affected by the travel ban.

While the initial introduction of the ban saw all in-bound travel fall 6.5% in the following eight days, there was a 2.2% recovery in bookings when the policy was struck down by the courts.

However plans for a fresh ban were announced on 17 February, which saw in-bound bookings fall again. Nine days after the announcement, in-bound bookings were down 4%, with passengers from the Middle East and Europe particularly reluctant to travel.

“Donald Trump’s on-off travel ban has created a rollercoaster ride for the travel industry,” Jager continued.

“Some passengers do not know where they stand as they await President Trump’s promised new order. It’s not at all clear when that will come. In the meantime, uncertainty reigns and the presidential rhetoric appears to be deterring visitors to the USA.”

The travel ban is not the first Trump policy which could impact the spirits sector. The US president has also mooted the introduction of a “Tequila tax” on all imports from Mexico to raise funds to build the proposed border wall between the two countries.

See the March issue of The Spirits Business for more on Americas travel retail.