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Global spirits growth forecast to plummet
The growth rate of the spirits category is forecast to drop significantly over the next five years, as consumers switch local spirits for imported brands.
The growth of global spirit volumes is set to slow dramatically in the coming years
A slowdown in the consumption of local spirits in several key markets, including Germany and Russia, is predicted to affect the overall growth rate of spirits. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of total global spirits consumption is expected to fall from 6.4% between 2007 and 2012, to 1.5% between 2012 and 2018.
According to recent IWSR research, imported spirits are set to grow at a faster rate (3%) than local spirits (1.5%) over the next five years.
But while the world’s interest in international brands is forecast to soar, boosting its market share to 12.3%, up from 11.3% in 2012, local spirits will grow by 222 million nine-litre cases by 2018, with imported spirits growing by a comparatively low 67 million cases.
Three major reasons are thought to be behind the slowdown: a slower growth rate for the baijiu market, which currently accounts for 38.7% of global spirit volumes; the end of India’s conversion to Indian-Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL); and the Russian government’s crackdown on alcohol consumption.
Overall, global consumption of spirits is predicted to reach 3.37 billion cases by 2018, an increase of 290 million cases since 2012.
Click through the following pages to discover the three imported spirits categories predicted for the biggest growth over the next five years.
Whisky
Imported whisky volumes (Scotch, American and other) are forecast to grow at 3% CAGR over the next six years, with the category expanding to just below 154 million cases by 2018.
Vodka
Over the next five years imported vodka is predicted to grow faster than the total global vodka market, the latter of which is set to add 18.5 million cases to its volumes by 2018.
Rum
While imported rum will continue to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% – the same rate as the last few years – the total rum category will slow from 3.8% in the previous five years to 1.1% between 2012 and 2018. The total rum category will reach 156 million cases by 2018, with 34 million consisting of imported rum.