Global spirits growth forecast to plummet5th November, 2013 by Becky Paskin
The growth rate of the spirits category is forecast to drop significantly over the next five years, as consumers switch local spirits for imported brands.
A slowdown in the consumption of local spirits in several key markets, including Germany and Russia, is predicted to affect the overall growth rate of spirits. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of total global spirits consumption is expected to fall from 6.4% between 2007 and 2012, to 1.5% between 2012 and 2018.
According to recent IWSR research, imported spirits are set to grow at a faster rate (3%) than local spirits (1.5%) over the next five years.
But while the world’s interest in international brands is forecast to soar, boosting its market share to 12.3%, up from 11.3% in 2012, local spirits will grow by 222 million nine-litre cases by 2018, with imported spirits growing by a comparatively low 67 million cases.
Three major reasons are thought to be behind the slowdown: a slower growth rate for the baijiu market, which currently accounts for 38.7% of global spirit volumes; the end of India’s conversion to Indian-Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL); and the Russian government’s crackdown on alcohol consumption.
Overall, global consumption of spirits is predicted to reach 3.37 billion cases by 2018, an increase of 290 million cases since 2012.
Click through the following pages to discover the three imported spirits categories predicted for the biggest growth over the next five years.